Europe-Afrique, un potentiel commercial a 1 000 milliards d'ici dix ans
Africa-Europe trade could nearly double to $1 trillion within a decade if the relationship moves from trading goods to co-production in a few competitive value chains, answering shared dependence on Chinese goods and US digital services.
Summary
BCG's report on the Africa-Europe corridor says bilateral trade could rise from $545 billion to $1 trillion within ten years if the two continents shift from trade to co-production in value chains where producing together is globally competitive. Goods trade grew only 25% over the last decade versus 60% in 2004-2014, and European FDI in Africa only about 30%. Shared dependence on Chinese finished goods and US digital services motivates integration, worth up to $280 billion of added trade across 15 priority clusters.
Editor's opinion
A speculative decade-out trade forecast with no disclosed methodology, and the substance is macro industrial policy rather than something a company can act on directly.
Key concepts
Africa-Europe corridor · Co-production · Priority clusters · Value-chain dependence · Strategic complementarity