Great Powers, Geopolitics, and the Future of Trade
Geopolitics is rerouting rather than shrinking world trade: goods trade will still grow 2.9% a year to 2033, but growth shifts to North America, the Global South, India and ASEAN while China-West trade contracts.
Summary
BCG's model of more than 150 countries projects goods trade growing 2.9 percent a year to 2033 while corridors shift: a resilient North America, China-West trade shrinking by $221 billion as China-Global South trade rises $1.25 trillion, surging India and ASEAN, and stagnating EU-China trade. Higher US tariffs would amplify this. Firms should build resilient, transparent supply chains, embed geopolitical scenarios in planning and capital allocation, expand in the Global South, nearshore smartly and differentiate regionally.
Editor's opinion
Geopolitical rivalries and alliances are rewiring world trade routes even as total trade keeps growing, so companies must plan supply chains and markets for the new corridors.
Key concepts
Stronghold North America · China pivot · Global South · China+X · Smart nearshoring · Geopolitical muscle