Protectionism, Pandemic, War, and the Future of Trade
Trade will grow more slowly than GDP through 2031 and be redrawn toward ASEAN and a neutral third bloc, so companies must trade some efficiency for resilience through diversified supply chains.
Summary
BCG projects world trade growth of 2.3% a year through 2031, below 2.5% GDP growth, reversing trade-led globalization. EU-Russia trade falls by $262 billion and US-China trade by $63 billion, while ASEAN-China trade rises $438 billion and ASEAN gains over $1 trillion of new commerce as near-shoring and friend-shoring spread. Energy is hit hardest. Companies should build buffer inventories, prequalify alternate suppliers and add geopolitical scenario planning to capital allocation and supply chain decisions.
Editor's opinion
Slowing and fragmenting trade will redraw winners and losers, pushing companies to diversify supply chains toward ASEAN and other developing markets.
Key concepts
Trade reorientation · ASEAN trade growth · Friend-shoring and near-shoring · Geopolitical scenario planning · Supply chain resilience