The race takes off in the next big arenas of competition
Since 2022 the 18 future arenas have grown market cap at 29% a year against 8% elsewhere and generated about half of all growth, but the money is concentrated in the AI foundation and in nine cash-rich omniscalers that spend $800 billion a year across many arenas at once. For strategists, the question is no longer whether to be in an arena but how close you sit to one and whether escalatory spending can earn returns above the cost of capital.
Summary
MGI updates its 2024 arenas research with data on 3,770 large companies through 2025. The 18 future arenas grew revenue 11% a year versus 1% for other industries and added about $18 trillion in market cap, $11 trillion of it in the AI foundation (semiconductors, cloud, AI software). Eight arenas track the upper bound of the 2040 scenarios, five the expected pace and five are earlier stage. Nine omniscalers (Alibaba, Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Huawei, Meta, Microsoft, Samsung, Tesla/SpaceX) generate operating cash flow of 26% of revenue and invest 31% of revenue in R&D and capex, while US firms hold 75% of arena market cap and China leads electrification. Executives are urged to map their proximity to arenas (in, near, on the fringe) with an "arenas radar", and to treat escalatory investment as justified only by a credible path to advantage.
Key concepts
Future arenas · Arena-creation potion (technology step change, escalatory investment, large addressable market) · AI foundation · Omniscalers · Shuffle rate · Arenas radar