Looking Ahead to 2026: Getting a Boost from the Great Rebound
Bain expects 2026 deal activity to hold or rise because technology disruption, post-globalization and shifting profit pools are forcing companies from awareness to reinvention. The binding constraint is capital, not appetite: M&A's share of capital allocation is at a roughly 30-year low, so only deals with a concrete value-creation thesis will clear the bar.
Summary
Bain's survey of 300+ M&A executives finds 80% expect to sustain or increase deal activity in 2026, helped by easing macro conditions, a backlog of PE and VC exits and ageing business models. Companies will use M&A and divestitures to decide which capabilities to own versus access, with joint ventures and minority stakes as hedges. Buybacks, capex, R&D and the Mag 7's roughly $500B AI build-out compete for cash, raising the return bar. Bain's agenda: ground deals in strategy, make big bets pay off through transformation-led integration, run full-potential diligence, build AI-enabled M&A capability, and refresh capital allocation.
Editor's opinion
2025 M&A hit $4.9T — second-highest ever — driven by technology disruption, post-globalization, and shifting profit pools. 80% of dealmakers expect sustained or higher activity in 2026, but
Key concepts
Technology disruption, post-globalization and shifting profit pools · Capital constraint (30-year low share of capital to M&A) · Own vs. access · Integration thesis (stabilize, integrate, transform) · Full-potential diligence · Frequent vs. infrequent acquirers