M&A Annual Report: Is the wave finally arriving?
M&A stayed near its 20-year average in 2024 (deal value up 12 percent to $3.4 trillion), but receding headwinds, record private equity dry powder and pent-up portfolio needs set up a 2025 upswing that will split dealmakers into big winners and everyone else, with programmatic acquirers best placed.
Summary
Henry and Van Oostende report that 2024 deal value rose 12 percent to $3.4 trillion across 7,784 deals, with midsize deals gaining share and megadeals falling. They argue easier macro conditions, over $2 trillion of PE dry powder, record 8.5-year exit hold times and regulatory shifts favor a stronger 2025, while tariffs, geopolitics and new US filing rules remain risks. Programmatic acquirers earn median excess TSR of 2.3 percent a year. The report's deep dives and essays cover sector outlooks and uncertainty, separations, gen AI, CEO roles, culture and talent retention.
Editor's opinion
The forces that held back M&A are receding and a rebound is likely, but gains will be uneven across regions and sectors.
Key concepts
Programmatic M&A · PE dry powder · Six postcards of uncertainty · Alternative deal types (JVs and alliances) · Separations (RemainCo/NewCo, TSAs) · M&A blueprint